When the facts change, I change my mind - what do you do, sir?
— John Maynard Keynes
When the facts change, I change my mind - what do you do, sir?
— John Maynard Keynes
smarties — Friday, 6 April 2007
by Donald W. Taylor II
Based on Andrea Mitchell's report last weekend, I ventured some pretty bold predictions ("Courage of Your Convictions," 2 April 2007). On the other hand, Kevin Drum has the following analysis ("The Moderates," Political Animal, 3 April 2007):
We've been hearing for about six years that moderate Republicans are going to break with Bush any day now on some issue or another, but the day never seems to come. When August rolls around, Petraeus will give another briefing where he'll provide a seemingly well-grounded and seemingly reality-based assessment of conditions in Baghdad accompanied by seemingly unimpeachable metrics showing that progress is being made — and the moderates will stroke their chins and agree that we're right on the cusp of serious change and we have to give Petraeus a chance to make his plan work.
Or something like that. At most, a few of the senators who are up for reelection might bolt, but that's about it.
Prediction making is always bad business. Nothing is a fait accompli where human action is concerned.
Mr. Drum is correct to point out that the Republicans have been surprisingly feckless with regard to all things President Bush. To say it another way, where the rubber hits the road, it is depressing what a monolithic party the Republicans have become.
That being said, crack-up still seems probable. The party in power always picks up a few extra votes by virtue of being the majority party. Some people just like to be on the winning side of issues. Legislators have to be able to go back to their districts with a record and an affirmative record is usually more defensible than a negative one. Most likely though is that the majority party has more plumb rewards and more painful punitive means at its disposal. It is better positioned to enforce cohesion among its own and put out lures to its opposition. It sets the agenda and can bring those wedge issues to the floor.
With the President and his war so unpopular and an election a year and a half away, it shouldn't be too difficult to drive that fissure between the President and Congressional Republicans out into the open.
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Donald W. Taylor II Washington, D.C. United States of America taylordw@goodleaf.net |